Market sources report that the price for India's large potash import contract has been determined at $349 per ton. This price was agreed upon by Russian potash company BPC and Indian fertilizer importer IPL, with shipments scheduled for delivery by December 2025 and a volume of 650,000 tons. This price represents a $70 per ton increase, or a 25% rise, compared to last year. Multiple industry insiders interviewed stated that this is in line with expectations.
On July 10 of last year, Indian fertilizer importer IPL signed a standard potassium chloride contract with major international suppliers at a price of $279 per ton, with a delivery period of 180 days and a deadline by the end of December. A day prior, China's potash import negotiation team (Sinochem, Sinograin, CNOOC Chemical) reached an agreement with Food Safety Supply Chain Co., Ltd. (Dubai) on the 2024 annual potash import contract price of $273 per ton.
Both China and India are major potash importing countries, and the historical prices of their large potash import contracts have been relatively close. Therefore, this price has reference significance for China's potash import prices.
The 2021–2022 annual large potash contracts were all signed in February. From 2021 to 2023, India took the lead in signing large potash contracts. Negotiations for the 2023 and 2024 large contracts were somewhat difficult, ultimately being concluded in June–July.
Industry insiders said that the market had been circulating rumors that India would sign a large potash import contract at around $350 per ton a week earlier, and the $349 per ton price is consistent with expectations.
India is completely dependent on potash imports and is the world's fourth-largest potash importer. According to UN data, it imported 3.25 million tons in 2021 and 3 million tons in 2023.
The large potash import contract price reached by China last year equated to a potassium chloride cost price of approximately 2,300 yuan per ton. This year, domestic potassium chloride prices have increased significantly. In May, the ex-factory price of 60% potassium chloride from Salt Lake Industry Group remained at 2,600 yuan per ton, and the market transaction price for domestic 60% potassium chloride rose to around 3,200–3,250 yuan per ton. For imported potash, port inventories have slightly decreased, and quoted prices have risen slightly. The reference mainstream quoted price for 62% Russian-Belarusian potash at ports has increased to 3,200–3,250 yuan per ton, and the mainstream quoted price for 60% Lao white potash has risen to 3,050 yuan per ton. For border trade potash, available spot supplies are limited, and quoted prices have increased slightly. The price of 62% white crystals at the Manzhouli border trade has risen to around 2,950–3,000 yuan per ton.
Additionally, recent international prices for Brazilian potassium chloride are $365–370 per ton; Southeast Asian potassium chloride prices are $350–370 per ton.
In the first quarter of this year, Belarus' Belaruskali reduced production by 900,000–1,000,000 tons due to equipment maintenance, while Russia's Uralkali reduced production by 300,000 tons during the same period. Together, the two countries account for 39% of global potash exports, and the production cuts have directly intensified supply-demand tensions.